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Lunenburg County officials announced a fourth case of COVID-19 Monday, April 13.

It was the first increase in the number of cases in the county in almost a week. While cases in other area counties tick up on almost a daily basis, Lunenburg’s cases have remained at a near constant level, holding at three from April 7 until the fourth case was announced April 13.

Just to the south of Lunenburg, Mecklenburg County has 57 cases of the virus. An outbreak in a long-term care facility there has led to the spike in cases. The same is true in Prince Edward County to the north, which has had two deaths from the coronavirus in the past week related to cases in a long-term care facility. Prince Edward currently has 13 cases. Piedmont Health District Director Dr. H. Robert Nash said more deaths are expected in the coming days.

Statewide, the latest update from the Virginia Department of Health shows 6,171 cases diagnosed with a total of 978 hospitalizations since the crisis began, and 154 deaths.

New pandemic models presented to the state Monday from the University of Virginia show the state’s social distancing plan is working. The presentation also showed a clear advantage in rural counties, such as Lunenburg, where the disease has not spread as rapidly as in urban settings.

The new models have increased the confidence of state leaders that Virginia will have enough capacity in its health care system to handle the crisis.

Currently, 422 COVID-19 patients are in ICU and 276 are on ventilators. Virginia is only using 25% of the ventilators it has available. Bed availability is at 5,991.

The governor’s Stay-at-Home Order and social distancing guidelines seem to be flattening the curve sufficiently, but state officials caution the fight against the virus is far from over.

Virginia’s peak for resource usage isn’t expected to arrive for another two weeks.