Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

By the end of May, home sales had spiked in Nottoway County. The same is true of Amelia and even a slight uptick in nearby Brunswick, according to the latest Housing Market Report from Virginia Realtors. It’s the opposite in Lunenburg, Charlotte and Prince Edward. But why is that? What is driving home sales in some rural areas and not others? 

Possible explanations vary locally

Virginia Realtors’ Chief Economist Ryan Price pointed to a more nuanced issue in the housing market: the need for housing in the right places. Simply put, one of the issues is that buyers are going where the jobs are. People may not want to live near the new data centers being built in Mecklenburg County, for example, but they’re looking at properties just over the line in Brunswick, offering a short commute and cheap land. 

“The biggest driver of economic health is jobs,” he said. “Where there’s more jobs, there’s more economic growth, and more home sales.” That means counties with more stable or growing employment opportunities are more likely to see housing activity pick up. When people have stable sources of income, plans of home-buying appear more attainable. Other quality-of-life factors– like schools, natural amenities, and proximity to larger job markets– can also shape housing demand at the hyper-local level. 

A second thing to consider is that while a county may have properties or even homes for sale, is it the right fit, Price questioned. If a single male employee of Microsoft is looking for a cheap, available apartment that fits his needs now, is that kind of housing available in Lunenburg County? And if not, doesn’t it make sense that he’s going to search and find the housing he needs, rather than spend more than his budget on a three or four bedroom house?

More than just the house, does the area fit the person’s needs? If you have that single worker or maybe a newlywed couple, what are they looking for? Is it a rural backdrop? Or do they want shops, grocery stores and other companies? It’s both about what you have, Price said, and how you market it. Does that family of four know the Town of Victoria has a pool you can buy a pass and swim all summer in? Do they know Kenbridge has a farmers market or about the seasonal activities for families at Railroad Park or elsewhere in the county? It’s not enough to have activities, but you have to market them where people outside of your region will notice. 

Let’s talk taxes in Lunenburg

Another local decision that could also affect market activity is property taxes. Virginia’s taxes have been generally going up. So, differences in property taxes county-to-county, though small, could possibly also drive buyer preferences. For example, if someone is pulling up houses to possibly buy online, without knowing anything else about the county, which are people going to gravitate to, the 33 cent tax rate in Lunenburg County or the 60 cent in Cumberland? 

Beyond that, Price said it’s mainly just a slow market in some places. 

“Most places have seen a decline in sales,” Price said. “It’s been pretty uniform across Virginia.” 

That includes rural counties. Compared to 2024, the 2025 market has shown less overall activity across much of the state, with fewer closings despite an increase in listings. Even an area like Prince Edward, where local businesses and Farmville population bunch, has not seen the same upward tick compared to years prior. 

What is certain is that housing inventory is up. “We’re seeing an increase in listings everywhere,” Price said. “Rural, suburban, urban– it’s happening across the board.” 

That increase in listings gives buyers more room to negotiate, and more homes to choose from. In some cases, that can stretch out the buying process, push some closings into future months, or put downward pressure on prices. The effects vary by region, though, as smaller market fluctuations in listings can produce dramatic percentages. “A 20% jump in home sales in Buckingham is not the same in impact– or scale– as a 20% jump in Fairfax County,” Price explained. 

A quieter Lunenburg market than 2024

Price also noted a year-over-year slowdown in market activity. One reason for this overall slowing is uncertainty. “We’re in a rate-sensitive environment right now,” Price said. With mortgage rates remaining high and economic uncertainty lingering, buyers are being more cautious. If mortgage rates were to decline meaningfully, Price believes we’d likely see an increase in sales activity. But for now, “I don’t see anything to pivot the market.” 

Reading the small numbers

Data from Virginia Realtors shows that sellers in these counties are receiving slightly less than asking price on average– indicating a softening in competitiveness.

With totals this small, a handful of listings or a single high-priced property can swing month-to-month percentages dramatically. That doesn’t necessarily signal a market in crisis. It could reflect greater buyer flexibility amid rising listings– or simply the quirks of rural real estate markets. As Price put it, “There are limited statistical conclusions that come with inspecting the local small-scale numbers.” When just a few dozen sales define the month, even small events– from one high-acreage property or one builder entering the market– can skew data. 

Still, for buyers and sellers alike, these micro-trends offer a window into how even modest shifts in the housing economy can play out very differently– one county line at a time.